Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors on Sunday, April 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Warriors about a 81% chance, and the Jazz would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 81%, with a projected score of Utah Jazz 110, Golden State Warriors 119. The rating gap is 150 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Jazz are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.4. The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8.
The Jazz were beaten 131-107 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Jazz score 112.8 a game and allow 121. The Warriors score 117.3 and allow 120.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.8 for the Jazz and 119.2 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Jazz.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTA), expected back Nov 4, 2026, Trey Alexander (UTA), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jaxson Hayes (UTA), Lauri Markkanen (UTA), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 5-2, with the Warriors outscoring the Jazz by an average of 12.6 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 116, UTA 119.