The edge goes to the Thunder on the road against the Nuggets on Sunday, April 11, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Nuggets are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 58%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 116, Denver Nuggets 114. The rating gap is 158 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Nuggets would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8. The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 111.3 a game and allow 100.8. The Nuggets score 113 and allow 121.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.5 for the Thunder and 106.9 for the Nuggets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nuggets have been tough to score on, which should slow the Thunder.
The Nuggets should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 100.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Chet Holmgren (OKC), Cameron Johnson (DEN), and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 10-6, with the Thunder outscoring the Nuggets by an average of 6.2 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 84, OKC 96.