The Win Meter favors the Timberwolves at home against the Rockets on Sunday, April 11, at about 65%. That is a real edge, but the Rockets are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 65%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 113, Minnesota Timberwolves 116. The two teams are rated almost level, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Rockets would win.
Recent form
The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Rockets score 120.8 a game and allow 111. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.9 for the Rockets and 116.5 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Rockets' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Rockets' defense, which has been giving up 111.
Injuries to watch
Out: Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Nov 2, 2026 and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 4-3, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Rockets by an average of 0.4 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 136, HOU 132.