Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks on Sunday, April 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 91% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 91%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, New York Knicks 122. The rating gap is 307 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 116.5 a game and allow 115. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.3 for the Pacers and 108.4 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Pacers have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) and Andrew Nembhard (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 7-6, with the Knicks outscoring the Pacers by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was IND 110, NYK 136.