Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics on Sunday, April 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 88% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 88%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 108, Boston Celtics 121. The rating gap is 251 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 116.8 a game and allow 122.3. The Celtics score 118 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.3 for the Bucks and 120.2 for the Celtics, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks' offense is the stronger unit against the Celtics' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Derrick White (BOS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 6-1, with the Celtics outscoring the Bucks by an average of 13.6 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 133, MIL 101.