Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings on Friday, April 9 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Kings at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Kings 55%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 114, Sacramento Kings 115. The rating gap is 67 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Kings on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Kings score 109.3 and allow 124. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.3 for the Mavericks and 112.7 for the Kings, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have been tough to score on, which should slow the Mavericks.
The Mavericks have defended better than the Kings have scored, so the Kings may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Kings lead 5-2, with the Kings outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.9 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 130, DAL 121.