Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns on Friday, April 9 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Suns about a 79% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Suns 79%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 110, Phoenix Suns 119. The rating gap is 131 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.6. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 132-101 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 116.8 a game and allow 107. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.3 for the Grizzlies and 108.2 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Grizzlies.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Grizzlies lead 5-2, with the Suns outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 3.9 points per game. The last meeting was PHX 131, MEM 105.