Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs on Friday, April 9 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 78% chance, and the Nuggets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 78%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 111, San Antonio Spurs 119. The rating gap is 125 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Nuggets score 113 a game and allow 121.7. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.5 for the Nuggets and 116.9 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nuggets have defended better than the Spurs have scored, so the Spurs may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 4-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Spurs by an average of 2.1 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 128, SAS 118.