Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, April 9 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 88% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 88%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 121. The rating gap is 253 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8. The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 117.3 a game and allow 120.8. The Thunder score 111.3 and allow 100.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.1 for the Warriors and 116.1 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Warriors have defended better than the Thunder have scored, so the Thunder may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, and Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Chet Holmgren (OKC). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 5-2, with the Thunder outscoring the Warriors by an average of 9.4 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 97, OKC 104.