Washington Wizards at Miami Heat on Friday, April 9 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Heat about a 83% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Heat 83%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 110, Miami Heat 120. The rating gap is 177 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 114.3 a game and allow 114.5. The Heat score 109 and allow 121.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.1 for the Wizards and 111.8 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the Wizards.
The Wizards have defended better than the Heat have scored, so the Heat may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 7-1, with the Heat outscoring the Wizards by an average of 19 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 140, WAS 117.