The edge goes to the Hawks at home against the Celtics on Friday, April 9, at about 59%. That is a real edge, but the Celtics are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 59%, with a projected score of Boston Celtics 114, Atlanta Hawks 116. The rating gap is 40 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 41 times in 100 games like this, the Celtics would win.
Recent form
The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8. The Hawks are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Celtics score 118 a game and allow 107.7. The Hawks score 121 and allow 111.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114.9 for the Celtics and 114.4 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Celtics' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
The Hawks should find points against the Celtics' defense, which has been giving up 107.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Derrick White (BOS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 4-3, with the Celtics outscoring the Hawks by an average of 5.3 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 102, ATL 112.