New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, April 8 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 79% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 79%, with a projected score of New York Knicks 119, Milwaukee Bucks 111. The rating gap is 326 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Knicks score 101.7 a game and allow 108. The Bucks score 116.8 and allow 122.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112 for the Knicks and 112.4 for the Bucks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Knicks.
The Bucks should find points against the Knicks' defense, which has been giving up 108.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 5-1, with the Knicks outscoring the Bucks by an average of 15.5 points per game. The last meeting was NYK 127, MIL 98.