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Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat: preview and Win Meter

Philadelphia 76ers → Miami Heat →

Recent form is the story in Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat on Thursday, April 8. The 76ers have won 3 of their last 5, while the Heat have won 0.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Heat 53%, with a projected score of Philadelphia 76ers 114, Miami Heat 115. The rating gap is 76 points in favor of the 76ers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.

Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the 76ers would win.

The recent-form gap

The 76ers are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.6. The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.

The 76ers were beaten 144-114 at home by NYK not long ago.

The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.

Offense against defense

The 76ers score 110 a game and allow 107. The Heat score 109 and allow 121.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.9 for the 76ers and 108 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.

The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the 76ers.

Injuries to watch

Out: Dominick Barlow (PHI), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ariel Hukporti (PHI), expected back Oct 1, 2027, and Tacko Fall (PHI), expected back Oct 28, 2026.

Day to day or questionable: Jabari Walker (PHI) and Joel Embiid (PHI). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-1, with the Heat outscoring the 76ers by an average of 10.3 points per game. The last meeting was PHI 109, MIA 119.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

76ers3-2, -3.6 avg margin
Heat0-5, -10.4 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Offense against defense

Scoring per game. Matchup math pairs each offense with the other team's defense.

Points scored
110
109
Points allowed
107
121.8
Matchup math
115.9
108
■ 76ers■ Heat

Keys to the game

  • Scoring math favors the 76ers: about 115.9 points expected against 108.
  • The 76ers arrive in better form (L-W-W-W-L against L-L-L-L-L).
  • Health: 3 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Heat.

Recent meetings

  • Mar 30: PHI 109, MIA 119
  • Feb 26: MIA 117, PHI 124
  • Nov 23: MIA 127, PHI 117
  • Apr 7: PHI 105, MIA 117
  • Mar 29: MIA 118, PHI 95

Injury report

Philadelphia 76ers
  • Dominick Barlow Out · back Nov 2
  • Ariel Hukporti Out · back Oct 1
  • Tacko Fall Out · back Oct 28
  • Jabari Walker Day to day · back Oct 28
  • Joel Embiid Day to day · back Oct 28
Miami Heat

No reported injuries.

Win Meter

47%
53%
76ersHeat

Projected score: 76ers 114, Heat 115

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

47%
53%
76ersHeat

Matchup at a glance

PHIMIA
Record3-10-4
Last 5LWWWLLLLLL
Points per game110109
Allowed per game107121.8
Days of rest––
Rating15461470

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