Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets on Wednesday, April 7 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 89% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 89%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 108, Houston Rockets 121. The rating gap is 262 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 9 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Rockets score 120.8 and allow 111. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.2 for the Kings and 122.4 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Kings lead 5-2, with the Rockets outscoring the Kings by an average of 2.7 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 97, HOU 128.