The edge goes to the Grizzlies at home against the Wizards on Wednesday, April 7, at about 74%. That is a real edge, but the Wizards are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Grizzlies 74%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 111, Memphis Grizzlies 118. The rating gap is 84 points in favor of the Grizzlies, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Grizzlies are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.6.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 132-101 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 114.3 a game and allow 114.5. The Grizzlies score 116.8 and allow 107. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.7 for the Wizards and 115.7 for the Grizzlies, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards' offense is the stronger unit against the Grizzlies' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Wizards by an average of 10 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 112, WAS 116.