Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, April 7 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 76% chance, and the Cavaliers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 76%, with a projected score of Cleveland Cavaliers 111, San Antonio Spurs 118. The rating gap is 104 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Cavaliers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Cavaliers score 119.3 a game and allow 120. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.7 for the Cavaliers and 116 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Cavaliers' offense is the stronger unit against the Spurs' defense.
The Cavaliers have defended better than the Spurs have scored, so the Spurs may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026 and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Cavaliers lead 4-0, with the Cavaliers outscoring the Spurs by an average of 8.5 points per game. The last meeting was CLE 113, SAS 101.