Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, April 7 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pistons about a 89% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 89%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 108, Detroit Pistons 121. The rating gap is 268 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 9 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 116.5 a game and allow 115. The Pistons score 118.3 and allow 105.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.1 for the Pacers and 116.7 for the Pistons, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Pistons' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND), Andrew Nembhard (IND), Ausar Thompson (DET), and Isaiah Joe (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 5-3, with the Pistons outscoring the Pacers by an average of 8.5 points per game. The last meeting was DET 133, IND 121.