The edge goes to the Warriors at home against the Suns on Tuesday, April 6, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Suns are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 58%, with a projected score of Phoenix Suns 114, Golden State Warriors 116. The rating gap is 47 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Suns would win.
Recent form
The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8. The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Suns score 109.3 a game and allow 123.7. The Warriors score 117.3 and allow 120.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.1 for the Suns and 120.5 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Suns.
The Suns have defended better than the Warriors have scored, so the Warriors may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Warriors outscoring the Suns by an average of 0.2 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 122, PHX 131.