New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets on Tuesday, April 6 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 81% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 81%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 110, Denver Nuggets 119. The rating gap is 148 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Nuggets score 113 and allow 121.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 123.2 for the Pelicans and 120.5 for the Nuggets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Nuggets have scored, so the Nuggets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 7-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 10.8 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 135, DEN 141.