Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, April 6 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 93% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 93%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 107, San Antonio Spurs 122. The rating gap is 341 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.7 for the Kings and 118 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have defended better than the Spurs have scored, so the Spurs may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 5-2, with the Spurs outscoring the Kings by an average of 5 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 132, SAC 104.