Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans on Monday, April 5 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pelicans about a 77% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pelicans 77%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 111, New Orleans Pelicans 118. The rating gap is 115 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pelicans on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 114.3 a game and allow 114.5. The Pelicans score 124.7 and allow 128. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 121.2 for the Wizards and 119.6 for the Pelicans, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans have been tough to score on, which should slow the Wizards.
The Pelicans should find points against the Wizards' defense, which has been giving up 114.5.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pelicans lead 4-0, with the Pelicans outscoring the Wizards by an average of 16.3 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 118, NOP 138.