The edge goes to the Knicks at home against the Celtics on Sunday, April 4, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Celtics are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 73%, with a projected score of Boston Celtics 111, New York Knicks 118. The rating gap is 75 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
Offense against defense
The Celtics score 118 a game and allow 107.7. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113 for the Celtics and 104.7 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Celtics' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Celtics have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026 and Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 8-7, with the Celtics outscoring the Knicks by an average of 2.3 points per game. The last meeting was NYK 103, BOS 107.