Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings on Sunday, April 4 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Warriors at only 53%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 53%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 115, Sacramento Kings 114. The rating gap is 121 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Kings on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the Kings would win.
Recent form
The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8. The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 117.3 a game and allow 120.8. The Kings score 109.3 and allow 124. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.7 for the Warriors and 115.1 for the Kings, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have been tough to score on, which should slow the Warriors.
The Warriors have defended better than the Kings have scored, so the Kings may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Warriors outscoring the Kings by an average of 5.2 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 118, SAC 124.