Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets on Sunday, April 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 83% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 83%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 110, Denver Nuggets 120. The rating gap is 179 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.6. The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 132-101 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 116.8 a game and allow 107. The Nuggets score 113 and allow 121.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.3 for the Grizzlies and 110 for the Nuggets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nuggets should find points against the Grizzlies' defense, which has been giving up 107.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 5-2, with the Nuggets outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 4.4 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 119, DEN 136.