Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors on Sunday, April 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Raptors about a 82% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 82%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 110, Toronto Raptors 119. The rating gap is 166 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 116.5 a game and allow 115. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.1 for the Pacers and 114.4 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Raptors' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND), Andrew Nembhard (IND), and Kawhi Leonard (TOR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 6-1, with the Raptors outscoring the Pacers by an average of 7.7 points per game. The last meeting was IND 104, TOR 122.