Our ratings lean toward the Timberwolves on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday, April 4, at about 64%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 64%, with a projected score of Minnesota Timberwolves 116, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 199 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 36 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6. The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Timberwolves score 122 a game and allow 105. The Mavericks score 112.5 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119 for the Timberwolves and 108.8 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Timberwolves' offense is the stronger unit against the Mavericks' defense.
The Mavericks should find points against the Timberwolves' defense, which has been giving up 105.
Injuries to watch
Out: Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 6-1, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 11.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 124, DAL 94.