New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, April 3 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 91% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 91%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 107, Oklahoma City Thunder 122. The rating gap is 306 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Thunder score 111.3 and allow 100.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.8 for the Pelicans and 119.7 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Thunder have scored, so the Thunder may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 7-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 19.4 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 95, OKC 104.