Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns on Friday, April 2 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Suns at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Suns 57%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 114, Phoenix Suns 116. The rating gap is 48 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Nuggets would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Nuggets score 113 a game and allow 121.7. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.4 for the Nuggets and 115.5 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have defended better than the Suns have scored, so the Suns may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, and Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN), Alpha Diallo (DEN), and Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 6-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Suns by an average of 12 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 125, PHX 123.