Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets on Friday, April 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 87% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 87%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 109, Houston Rockets 120. The rating gap is 225 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.6. The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 132-101 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 116.8 a game and allow 107. The Rockets score 120.8 and allow 111. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.9 for the Grizzlies and 113.9 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Grizzlies' offense is the stronger unit against the Rockets' defense.
The Rockets should find points against the Grizzlies' defense, which has been giving up 107.
Injuries to watch
Out: Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 7-1, with the Rockets outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 11.3 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 101, HOU 132.