Our ratings lean toward the Raptors at home against the Hawks on Friday, April 2, at about 61%. That is a real edge, but the Hawks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 61%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 113, Toronto Raptors 116. The rating gap is 26 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 39 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 121 a game and allow 111.8. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.4 for the Hawks and 112.8 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Raptors' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, and Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 6-1, with the Raptors outscoring the Hawks by an average of 9.1 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 100, TOR 118.