The Win Meter favors the Mavericks at home against the Kings on Friday, April 2, at about 72%. That is a real edge, but the Kings are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 72%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 112, Dallas Mavericks 118. The rating gap is 67 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Mavericks score 112.5 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.7 for the Kings and 118.3 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Kings.
The Kings have defended better than the Mavericks have scored, so the Mavericks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Kings lead 5-2, with the Kings outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.9 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 130, DAL 121.