Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, April 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 80% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 80%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Minnesota Timberwolves 119. The rating gap is 145 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 117.3 a game and allow 120.8. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.2 for the Warriors and 121.4 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 8-5, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Warriors by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 127, GSW 117.