Miami Heat at Boston Celtics on Friday, April 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 80% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 80%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 110, Boston Celtics 119. The rating gap is 143 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4. The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 121.8. The Celtics score 118 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.4 for the Heat and 119.9 for the Celtics, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 7-1, with the Celtics outscoring the Heat by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 147, MIA 129.