Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, April 1 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 79% chance, and the Lakers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 79%, with a projected score of Los Angeles Lakers 110, Oklahoma City Thunder 119. The rating gap is 131 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Lakers score 128 a game and allow 115. The Thunder score 111.3 and allow 100.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114.4 for the Lakers and 113.2 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cameron Carr (LAL), Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, and Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 10-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Lakers by an average of 16.2 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 115, LAL 110.