The edge goes to the Magic on the road against the Pacers on Thursday, April 1, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Pacers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Magic 58%, with a projected score of Orlando Magic 116, Indiana Pacers 114. The rating gap is 157 points in favor of the Magic, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pacers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Pacers would win.
Recent form
The Magic are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.2. The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Magic score 109.7 a game and allow 116.3. The Pacers score 116.5 and allow 115. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.4 for the Magic and 116.4 for the Pacers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers have been tough to score on, which should slow the Magic.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026, and Jalen Suggs (ORL), expected back Nov 10, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) and Andrew Nembhard (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Magic lead 5-2, with the Magic outscoring the Pacers by an average of 3.3 points per game. The last meeting was IND 128, ORL 126.