The Win Meter favors the Cavaliers at home against the Celtics on Thursday, April 1, at about 59%. That is a real edge, but the Celtics are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Cavaliers 59%, with a projected score of Boston Celtics 113, Cleveland Cavaliers 116. The rating gap is 36 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Cavaliers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 41 times in 100 games like this, the Celtics would win.
Recent form
The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8. The Cavaliers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Celtics score 118 a game and allow 107.7. The Cavaliers score 119.3 and allow 120. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119 for the Celtics and 113.5 for the Cavaliers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Cavaliers should find points against the Celtics' defense, which has been giving up 107.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 5-2, with the Celtics outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 4.6 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 109, CLE 98.