Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, March 31 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Nuggets at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 57%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 115, Dallas Mavericks 114. The rating gap is 149 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2. The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Nuggets score 113 a game and allow 121.7. The Mavericks score 112.5 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114.5 for the Nuggets and 117.1 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nuggets have defended better than the Mavericks have scored, so the Mavericks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN), Alpha Diallo (DEN), and Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 5-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.2 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 135, DEN 142.