Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, March 31 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 89% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 89%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 108, Minnesota Timberwolves 121. The rating gap is 266 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 9 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 107.2 for the Kings and 123 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 5-3, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Kings by an average of 5.4 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 103, MIN 117.