Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, March 31 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pistons about a 76% chance, and the Raptors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 76%, with a projected score of Toronto Raptors 111, Detroit Pistons 118. The rating gap is 102 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4. The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Raptors score 113.7 a game and allow 103.7. The Pistons score 118.3 and allow 105.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.7 for the Raptors and 111 for the Pistons, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Raptors' offense is the stronger unit against the Pistons' defense.
The Pistons should find points against the Raptors' defense, which has been giving up 103.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR), Ausar Thompson (DET), Isaiah Joe (DET), and Elijah Harkless (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 6-1, with the Pistons outscoring the Raptors by an average of 6.4 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 116, DET 127.