Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz on Tuesday, March 30 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 85% chance, and the Jazz would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 85%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 120, Utah Jazz 109. The rating gap is 403 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Jazz on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8. The Jazz are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.4.
The Jazz were beaten 131-107 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 111.3 a game and allow 100.8. The Jazz score 112.8 and allow 121. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.2 for the Thunder and 106.8 for the Jazz, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Jazz have been tough to score on, which should slow the Thunder.
The Jazz should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 100.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jaxson Hayes (UTA), Lauri Markkanen (UTA), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 8-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Jazz by an average of 24.2 points per game. The last meeting was UTA 111, OKC 146.