Recent form is the story in Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday, March 30. The Hornets have won 3 of their last 5, while the Heat have won 0.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 75%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 111, Charlotte Hornets 118. The rating gap is 88 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
The recent-form gap
The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4. The Hornets are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.8.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 121.8. The Hornets score 104 and allow 111. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110 for the Heat and 112.9 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, and Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-4, with the Heat outscoring the Hornets by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 110, CHA 115.