Our ratings lean toward the Nuggets on the road against the Kings on Monday, March 29, at about 66%. That is a real edge, but the Kings are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 66%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 117, Sacramento Kings 113. The rating gap is 216 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Kings on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 34 times in 100 games like this, the Kings would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2. The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Nuggets score 113 a game and allow 121.7. The Kings score 109.3 and allow 124. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.5 for the Nuggets and 115.5 for the Kings, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have been tough to score on, which should slow the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have defended better than the Kings have scored, so the Kings may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, and Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 7-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Kings by an average of 8.7 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 136, SAC 105.