Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs on Monday, March 29 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 83% chance, and the Suns would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 83%, with a projected score of Phoenix Suns 110, San Antonio Spurs 119. The rating gap is 173 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Suns score 109.3 a game and allow 123.7. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.7 for the Suns and 117.9 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have defended better than the Spurs have scored, so the Spurs may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Suns lead 4-3, with the Suns outscoring the Spurs by an average of 1.7 points per game. The last meeting was PHX 100, SAS 101.