The Win Meter favors the Bucks at home against the Mavericks on Monday, March 29, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Bucks 58%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 114, Milwaukee Bucks 116. The rating gap is 45 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Bucks score 116.8 and allow 122.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.4 for the Mavericks and 116.4 for the Bucks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Mavericks.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 4-0, with the Bucks outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 17.8 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 99, MIL 123.