Our ratings lean toward the Bulls at home against the Pacers on Monday, March 29, at about 62%. That is a real edge, but the Pacers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Bulls 62%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 113, Chicago Bulls 116. The rating gap is 15 points in favor of the Pacers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Bulls on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 38 times in 100 games like this, the Pacers would win.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Bulls are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -19.2.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Bulls were beaten 135-92 on the road by TOR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 116.5 a game and allow 115. The Bulls score 110.8 and allow 129.5. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 123 for the Pacers and 112.9 for the Bulls, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bulls have been tough to score on, which should slow the Pacers.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Nicolas Claxton (CHI), expected back Nov 4, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND), Andrew Nembhard (IND), and Patrick Williams (CHI). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pacers lead 7-1, with the Pacers outscoring the Bulls by an average of 7.6 points per game. The last meeting was IND 145, CHI 126.