Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, March 29 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Cavaliers about a 77% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Cavaliers 77%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 111, Cleveland Cavaliers 118. The rating gap is 107 points in favor of the Cavaliers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Cavaliers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4. The Cavaliers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 121.8. The Cavaliers score 119.3 and allow 120. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114.5 for the Heat and 120.6 for the Cavaliers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Cavaliers have been tough to score on, which should slow the Heat.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Cavaliers lead 8-3, with the Cavaliers outscoring the Heat by an average of 14 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 128, CLE 149.