The edge goes to the Hawks at home against the Timberwolves on Monday, March 29, at about 60%. That is a real edge, but the Timberwolves are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 60%, with a projected score of Minnesota Timberwolves 113, Atlanta Hawks 116. The rating gap is 33 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 40 times in 100 games like this, the Timberwolves would win.
Recent form
The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6. The Hawks are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Timberwolves score 122 a game and allow 105. The Hawks score 121 and allow 111.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.9 for the Timberwolves and 113 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Timberwolves' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
The Hawks should find points against the Timberwolves' defense, which has been giving up 105.
Injuries to watch
Out: Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Hawks outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 1.8 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 116, MIN 138.