Our ratings lean toward the Suns at home against the Raptors on Sunday, March 28, at about 59%. That is a real edge, but the Raptors are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Suns 59%, with a projected score of Toronto Raptors 114, Phoenix Suns 116. The rating gap is 39 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 41 times in 100 games like this, the Raptors would win.
Recent form
The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Raptors score 113.7 a game and allow 103.7. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.7 for the Raptors and 106.5 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Raptors.
The Suns should find points against the Raptors' defense, which has been giving up 103.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR) and Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Suns outscoring the Raptors by an average of 9.3 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 98, PHX 120.