Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, March 28 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Thunder at only 51%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 51%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 115, Minnesota Timberwolves 114. The rating gap is 108 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 49 times in 100 games like this, the Timberwolves would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 111.3 a game and allow 100.8. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.2 for the Thunder and 111.4 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Thunder's offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 100.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 8-5, with the Thunder outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 2.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 103, OKC 116.