Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards on Sunday, March 28 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Mavericks at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 52%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 115, Washington Wizards 114. The rating gap is 114 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Wizards would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Wizards score 114.3 and allow 114.5. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.5 for the Mavericks and 115.2 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL) and Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 3-1, with the Mavericks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 13.5 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 111, WAS 105.